By Joseph Rachman
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: The Philippines declares an energy emergency, Thailand gets permission to sail the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore wants China to step up, and fuel prices ground planes.
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Philippines Declares Energy Emergency
![Transport workers and activists take part in a protest as they stage a strike over surging fuel costs in Manila, Philippines, on March 27.]()
Transport workers and activists take part in a protest as they stage a strike over surging fuel costs in Manila, Philippines, on March 27.Ezra Acayan/Getty Images
🇵🇭 On March 24, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency.
The Philippines has seen one of the world’s sharpest increases in petrol prices, according to research by AFP, going up more than 50 percent in a month. Diesel prices are even worse, having nearly doubled in the same period.
As part of his statement, Marcos announced the formation of a committee focused on mitigating the impact of price rises on vital sectors and looking for ways for the private sector to consume less fossil fuel.
Other concrete measures included fuel subsidies, commuter subsidies, the expansion of public transport, and the temporary reduction and suspension of toll charges.
The government further announced it was seeking a 30-day rice price cap. It is also considering suspending fuel taxes.
The government has already promoted a slew of measures to try to conserve energy, such as ordering civil servants to use less air conditioning and cut back on travel.
The announcements come as fuel prices prompted strikes by transport workers, a group with a strong tradition of protest.
The energy crunch is prompting the Philippines to also turn to countries with whom it has tricky relationships.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Marcos said there was “certainly” going to be a reset of relations with China.
He suggested the crisis could provide fresh impetus for talks, reopened in 2023 but since stalled, about joint energy exploration in disputed areas of the South China Sea.
Russia has also stepped into the gap, with a tanker carrying more than 700,000 barrels arriving last week. (Moscow’s imminent ban on gasoline exports will likely limit repeats.)
Still, one should not over-index on the idea of a strategic tilt. The Philippines has also turned to Japan for fuel.
There are also signs of anger at the crisis imposed on the country by the United States’ war, with one independent senator denouncing U.S. President Donald Trump. But for the moment, popular ire seems directed at Marcos.
The Philippines is particularly exposed to the oil crisis, but countries across the region are taking similar measures.
In Cambodia, where the fuel price increased 68 percent due to the war, according to the Khmer Times, the government has told state bodies to implement strict fuel efficiency measures. It has also cut fuel taxes.
Meanwhile, Laos—impoverished, highly indebted, and extremely dependent on imported oil—has introduced a three-day school week.
It has also slashed service fees for electric cars and ordered government agencies not to buy new gas-powered vehicles unless strictly necessary.
Vietnam is encouraging work-from-home measures and set some fuel taxes at zero until April 15.
Thailand’s prime minister has urged citizens to economize on fuel and not hoard.
There is also a universal scramble for supplies. The U.S. waiver of sanctions on Russian oil at sea prompted a number of countries in the region to express interest—though as noted above, this plan may now have run into problems.
Meanwhile, Australia and Singapore are working together to help shore up each other’s energy supplies.
Australia is seeking a similar arrangement with Malaysia, which Iran has allowed to sail ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
🇸🇬 Singapore pages China. “China can play an even bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong declared March 26 at the Bo’ao Forum for Asia conference in Hainan, China.
Citing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the breakdown of international law, and the rise of protectionism, Wong added that the foundations of global stability are “under severe strain.”
China, Wong hoped, could be part of plurilateral arrangements to help keep the show on the road.
China’s economic and technological leadership, especially in digital and green tech, makes it a key contributor on issues from infrastructure to international regulations, he said.
Contrast this to the comments made about the United States by Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan in a March 23 interview with Reuters. “[T]he underwriter of this world order has now become a revisionist power, and some people would even say a disruptor.”
Still, Balakrishnan underscored Singapore’s strong economic relations with both China and the United States.
“Is it in our national interest to be forced to choose sides? I do not think so. We have to be relevant, to be useful, but not being used by either side.”
🇹🇭 Thai ships through Hormuz. On March 28, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced he had reached a deal with Iran to let Thai oil vessels pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
The deal is potentially a big win for Thailand, which is among the most oil import-dependent countries in the region.
One ship had already passed through previously. The Iranian Embassy in Thailand commented on the event, posting on X, “Friends have a special place.”
As previously discussed, on March 11 a Thai cargo ship was struck by an Iranian missile. This prompted a protest from Thailand, which enjoys a notably cordial relationship with Iran.
🇰🇭 Cambodian journalists sentenced to 14 years. Two Cambodian journalists had their 14-year prison sentences for treason upheld by a court on March 26.
Pheap Phara and Phorn Sopheap stood accused of posting a photo taken in a restricted area during the July border conflict with Thailand.
Vitally, the image was later republished by Thai media, which claimed the image showed unplaced land mines in the background. (Thailand’s claim that Cambodia had been laying new land mines was a key spark of last year’s conflict.)
The pair’s lawyer has said he will file a petition to the Supreme Court to challenge the ruling. Various groups have condemned the ruling.
Nop Vy, executive director of the Cambodian Journalists Alliance Association, also criticized the sentence, saying: “For me, this 14-year sentence is unacceptable and severe. It may intimidate [journalists] reporting on border issues.”
![A farmer burns a paddy field after harvest to prepare for new planting in Nakhon Sawan, Thailand, on March 28.]()
A farmer burns a paddy field after harvest to prepare for new planting in Nakhon Sawan, Thailand, on March 28.Chaiwat Subprasom/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Thailand, like the rest of the region, suffers severely from air pollution. The March-April dry season is often particularly difficult, especially in northern Thailand. Forest fires flare—some natural, some illegally set—and farmers burn reaped crop fields in order to clear them for the next planting.
Macbeth in Minangkabau by Shawn Hoo in the Straits Times. Malaysian playwright Norzizi Zulkifli has adapted Shakespeare’s classic tragedy into a randai, a form of singing and dancing of the Sumatran Minang people.
Japanese combat troops will set foot in the Philippines for the first time since World War II. Takahashi Kosuke explores how Japan’s planned participation in upcoming Philippines-U.S. military exercises reflects the country’s changing strategic posture, in the Diplomat.
Can Laos “de-risk” from China? Keith Barney and Simon Creak ask if the country can reduce its growing dependence on China, to whom it owes heavy debts, in the East Asia Forum.
In Focus: Can Planes Keep Flying?
On March 27, Vietnamese media reported that national airlines were slashing flights due to fuel shortages. Vietnam Airlines will cut flight volumes by 10 percent to 20 percent from April 1 if jet fuel prices continue to rise. Vietjet Air is similarly looking at cuts of 18 percent. And Bamboo Air is aiming for cuts of 50 percent.
In the Philippines, carrier Cebu Pacific announced on March 24 that it is reducing the number of flights on some routes and flat-out suspending others. This coincided with Marcos saying in an interview that there was a “distinct possibility” that flights would be grounded in the country.
Other airlines including Malaysia Airlines, Firefly, and Batik Air are implementing surcharges.
Meanwhile, in Thailand, the government is leaning on airlines to keep flight prices down during Songkran—a massive national holiday where many Thai return home.
And in Indonesia, the government is resisting calls to try to hike the existing cap on domestic flight prices—though this might change when the massive flow of people returning home after Eid ends.
The basic problem is fuel. Jet fuel prices are already over $200 a barrel in Asia. This represents a massive disruption to supply chains and anticipated shortages.
Measures by various parties to try to conserve their own supplies are causing further shortages; there are growing signs of hoarding.
Marcos also claimed in his interview that a key problem is that a number of countries are trying to preserve their jet fuel supplies by refusing to refuel foreign aircraft when they land. This forces these aircraft to carry their own fuel needed for the return journey.
Faced with this, government attempts to shelter consumers and businesses are going to have limited impact. We are already entering a phase of demand destruction where services are reduced. Rationing may follow, say sober people, such as Philippine Airlines President Richard Nuttall.